Project cost guide

Common Project Estimating Errors

Most estimate failures are not caused by arithmetic; they come from scope, assumptions, data and governance.

Frequent errors

  1. Starting with a target: adjusting assumptions until the estimate fits available funding.
  2. Missing integration work: estimating components but not interfaces, testing, training or transition.
  3. Using stale analogies: copying historic costs without normalizing time, location, size and scope.
  4. False precision: reporting cents or narrow accuracy when the design is immature.
  5. Flat contingency: applying one percentage without examining risk.
  6. Double counting: including the same risk in rates, quantities and contingency.
  7. Ignoring schedule: omitting escalation, extended overhead and cash timing.
  8. Overwriting history: changing the baseline to match actual results.

Practical prevention

Use a scope checklist, basis of estimate, peer review, sensitivity analysis and formal version history. Compare outcomes with prior estimates to improve future assumptions.